Dr Mike Kelly AM examines why a finding of genocide against Israel by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is highly unlikely under international law.
Drawing extensively on the 1948 Genocide Convention and relevant ICJ jurisprudence, he argues that genocide requires proof of a specific intent to destroy a protected group in whole or in part, and that this must be the only reasonable inference from the evidence.
Kelly analyses the ICJ’s current proceedings, prior genocide cases, and the Convention’s drafting history to demonstrate the high legal threshold required.
He contrasts the definition of genocide with the realities of urban warfare, reviewing casualty claims, humanitarian aid flows, medical operations, IDF precautions in attack, and internal investigative mechanisms.
He further critiques reliance on unverified casualty data and partisan UN reports, arguing that they fail to establish the specific intent required under the Convention.
The article concludes that, whatever criticisms may be made of particular incidents or conduct in the war, the legal standard for genocide has not been met, and that expanding the Convention beyond its original scope would require a formal international renegotiation of its terms.
Dr Mike Kelly AM is an Australian former politician (ALP) who twice represented the Division of Eden-Monaro in the Parliament of Australia, from 2007 to 2013 and again from 2016 to 2020.
Mike Kelly was born in Adelaide and studied history and law at Macquarie University before joining the Australian Army in 1987 and subsequently attained a PhD in International Law from the University of NSW, particularly relating to the laws of armed conflict. He went on to serve in Somalia, East Timor, Bosnia and Iraq. He was among senior Australian military personnel in the Iraq War. He finished his military career in 2007 with the rank of Colonel as Director of Army Legal Services.
While he was an MP, Mike Kelly served as the Shadow Assistant Minister for Defence Industry, and Minister for Defence Materiel in the Gillard Government. He also served on the Shadow National Security Committee, and served for four years on the bi-partisan Parliamentary Joint Committee on Intelligence and Security. He also served as National Security Adviser to the Leader of the Opposition.
Mike Kelly is a leading expert on peace and stabilisation operations, post conflict reconstruction and counter-insurgency. He has published two books, numerous articles, and has been a regular speaker at military training programs and conferences around the world.
J7 statement on the attack on Hatzolah ambulances in Golders Green, London.
Letter to the Australian Financial Review editor about the David Rowe cartoon containing antisemitic tropes.
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Antisemitism is becoming harder to recognise in the West
Commentary by co-CEO Peter Wertheim, originally published in the Australian Financial Review on 7 April 2026.